Multiple cryptocurrency personalities have suggested that alt season is coming up.
For example, in a recent tweet, WSB ash described a four-phase path to the “FULL ALTERNATE SEASON”.
It involved Bitcoin stabilizing around $30,000, then money flowed into Ethereum, which posted 9.7% gains in the last 24 hours, hitting $2,130 to mark a 48-week high.
The third phase is when (other) “large caps go parabolic” from the money flowing out of Ethereum. Finally, alt season kicks off as large-cap gains trickle down to the rest of the market.
At this point, each coin pumps regardless of fundamentals, creating mania and signaling the arrival of alternate seasonsaid Ash WSB.
It should be noted that there is no universally recognized definition of Alt Season. However, as mentioned above, alt season is usually identified by altcoins posting manic gains.
However, Blockchain Center, with its Altcoin Season Index — has quantified an objective definition of Alt Season.
alternate season
According to Blockchain Center, Alt Season is when at least three-quarters of the top 50 coins outperform Bitcoin in a three-month period.
“If 75% of the top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin during the last season (90 days), it’s Altcoin season. Stablecoins (Tether, DAI…) and asset-backed tokens (WBTC, stETH, cLINK,…) are excluded from the Top 50”
The current 90-day performance of the top 50 shows that only 9 coins/tokens outperform the market leader: XRP, ADA, FTM, RPL, SOL, DOGE, LTC, XLM, and ETH.
By the Blockchain Center definition, an additional 29 coins/tokens would be needed to surpass Bitcoin before Alt Season can be officially called.
By indexing this data, Blockchain Center has assigned a current score of 14, deep into Bitcoin season, which means bad news for those awaiting the imminent arrival of alt season.
The chart below identified the last alternate season that occurred between early August 2022 and mid-September 2022.
How do things look?
Bitcoin dominance reached 48.9% of the market on April 11. The rejection at this level has led to a downward trend, suggesting that Phase 1 of the alternate season is underway.
However, the 47% zone represents strong support and is something to consider before declaring Phase 1 complete.
Ethereum dominance is currently skyrocketing due to the recent Shanghai update. This may have enough momentum to hamper significant exits to other large caps.
The chart below shows that ETH.D is about to test 20.4% resistance – a break above this level would keep the alt season in phase 2.
However, total market capitalization inflows are increasing. In the last seven days, an additional $108 billion (+9%) was added to the total market capitalization. Similarly, total market gains to date were $488 billion, at $1.28 trillion (+61%), a level not seen since May 2022, Bitco before the Terra implosion.
This would suggest that the crypto market has recovered from the contagion event.
The charge Here’s why alt-season may be on the horizon first appeared in CryptoSlate.
