North Rock Digital founder Hal Press said that Ethereum () selling pressure would not be as high as many predicted after the Shapella update.
On a April 12 , Press explained that the available data suggests that “most of the sales projections were too high and the sale will not be as strong as expected.”
According to Press, only 4,000 Ethereum validators have voluntarily left the validator pool. Of this number, 1,600 are individual participants and are more likely to sell.
“Of these 1600, I conservatively estimate that 50% will be sold and 50% reallocated elsewhere (liquid staking didn’t exist when they started staking). This leaves 800 validators that will likely be sold, that’s 25,000 ETH. Plus another 50-60k in withdrawals, so ~85k ETH in total.”
Press noted that even if his predictions were three times low, only 250,000 ETH would be available for sale after unlocking. According to him, this number is “quite insignificant” considering the overall supply.
With the Shappella update scheduled for today, several analysts hadunlocking the token could add to the selling pressure on ETH.
Analytics firms predict lower selling pressure
Blockchain Analytical Signature glass node that 170,000 ETH could be sold after the Shanghai update. The on-chain data aggregator based its prediction on the number of depositors looking to exit.
According to the firm, the impact of any sale on the ETH price would be minimal, even in an extreme case where the maximum amount of ETH and staked rewards are withdrawn and sold.
“The sell-side volume is still within the range of the average weekly trade entry volume. Therefore, we conclude that even the most extreme case will have an acceptable impact on the ETH price.”
Meanwhile, Arcana that in the worst case, only 6% of ETH’s average daily trading volume will be for sale in the first three days after the withdrawal is available.
cryptoquantification also that selling pressure will be modest. He pointed out that 60% of all ETH staked is a loss, which means that selling at this time will not be profitable.
The chargefirst appeared in .